Dakota-Dozen-2010

Competitively speaking in class 11A

NOTICE: The predictions and records you see here are those of the writer and in many cases will differ from those seen in the magazine.

Dakota Dozen

by Bruce Andera (dakotadozen@ksfypigskinpreview.com)

Today, the Dakota Dozen Preview Tour descends upon one of my favorite classes of football in this state, class 11A. I like the football in this class in that the schools are big enough to field some very good teams, while at the same time being small enough that the residents of the towns involved are still fully vested in their team.

This season, the competition in class 11A is more spread out and even than ever before. Many of the 21 teams in class 11A are chomping at the bit to start the season next week, and with the new playoff format, the regions that have been loaded in the past will have teams that stand a much better chance of making a much deeper playoff run. It’s gonna be a wild ride, so let’s get on with it!

END OF AN ERA?

1. In the past five seasons, pegging the top team in the class was pretty easy. The West Central Trojans were an absolute machine, and were nigh unstoppable. That mystique has faded some over the past three seasons, even though they’ve remained perfect during the regular season. The Trojans have seemed a little more beatable with each passing season, a fact that reared its head in 2007 during a regional final loss to Dell Rapids, and last year, losing a shootout to Sisseton in the first round of the playoffs.

The Trojans will still be a very solid team this season, and will still make the opposition pay for their mistakes on the field. But unlike four or five seasons ago, it’s a lot harder for me to call them the best in the state.

2. So who would take that spot should West Central vacate it?

Last season, a relatively unknown Milbank team won the state championship, despite losing three of their first four games last season. That made it pretty easy to write them off last year. But they ran off eight straight wins and was the main beneficiary of Sisseton’s upset of West Central. But make no mistake – This Bulldogs team is back in full force with 24 returning players, including quarterback Nick Mears and running back Colin Porath, giving the Bulldogs a great offense both on the ground and through the air. Their defense is still every bit as good as last season as well. We’ll learn a lot about this team in the first half of the season, especially Sept. 3 when they head to Hartford to face the Trojans in a clash of class 11A titans.

WAS LAST SEASON A FLUKE?

3. For the Sisseton Redmen, they’re out to prove last season’s first round upset of West Central was no fluke. It’ll be a fairly tall order, as they needed an absolute career game from quarterback Ryan Toelle to pull that off. This is also a team that during the regular season, dropped the last three games before the playoffs. Keep in mind, though, that they were within a touchdown of beating Milbank in the quarterfinals last year as well. There aren’t any holes in their spread offense attack, but their defense will need some work if they want to be playing very far into November this season. It’ll all depend on which team shows up: The team that stumbled down the stretch last season or the team that nearly pulled off two straight upsets in the playoffs last year.

4. The same goes for the Dakota Valley Panthers, who played their way in the semifinals last season, knocking off Vermillion and Harrisburg on the way. Quarterback Matt Lupkes pretty much put the entire team on his back late last season. I saw him play in the season opener two years ago, and he was a very good player then, and has greatly improved since both as a quarterback and a defensive back. The problem I see here is they were barely able to touch the elite teams on their schedule (Tri-Valley, Dell Rapids and St. Thomas More), scoring only 21 points against those teams combined.

5. As for Harrisburg, they’re receiving a lot of preseason hype, with their growing number of football players, and seven starters back on the field, most notably quarterback Steve Miller. Miller is a gifted athlete, and is able to make plays happen in a hurry that others simply aren’t, but he’s been stuck in a pro-set offense, when a double wing or I-formation option offense would suit his skill set much better. Their defense was inconsistent at best last year as well, and until this team can prove they can be consistently good to me on the field, I simply cannot place them in the top five in this class. I hope the Tigers can prove me wrong on this one this season.

CAN THE WEST FINALLY WIN?

6. This season, probably not. St. Thomas More will still be a quality team, but they have lost the big names they’ve had over the last five seasons. Accoring to last year’s state championship program, the Cavaliers have only eight seniors on this season’s team, which makes for an extremely young group of players. Because of the relatively weak schedule they’ll play, 7-1 or 8-0 is still likely for this team, as coach Wayne Sullivan is an excellent motivator and will have his team ready to play every week.

7. Last season, three west river teams came east to play a game. St. Thomas more handled Vermillion without much problem, Hot Springs only beat Madison by two, and Belle Fourche actually held a halftime lead at West Central, but wasn’t able to sustain the pressure they had on the Trojans, eventually losing 23-14. This season, the east river teams head west to complete the series. These games have been a great way for these teams to see other opponents they normally wouldn’t, as well as give us a better idea of where teams in different regions stand.

THE BEST OF THE REST

8. The rest of region 1

We’ve covered West Central, Sisseton and Milbank at some length already, so that should give a pretty clear picture of how good the teams there are. We’ll know early on where these teams stand against each other, as well. Sisseton plays Milbank out of the gate Aug. 27, and Milbank heads to Hartford to play West Central the following week. But Dell Rapids will also make themselves known here as well. They’ll be much better than last year, when they were 5-3 and had a difficult time with teams they should have beaten more handily. Madison is still a non-factor, though having a different coach could change that over the next few seasons.

9. The rest of region 2

Dakota Valley and Harrisburg are the teams to beat here, and if anyone else can do it, Canton could be that team. They are a traditionalist’s dream to watch, running their offense out of a classic T-formation; running plays like teams did 50 years ago. Their defense plays big, but was killed by giving up too many big plays. Vermillion hasn’t had a great team since the mid-1990s, and their young core of skill position players will need to learn the system very quickly to have an impact on the rest of the Big 8 as well, while Lennox and Tea are still going through growing pains.

10. The rest out west

St. Thomas More is the clear favorite among teams west of the Missouri River in class 11A, but Belle Fourche has put together some great teams too. Graduation was not kind to the Broncs this season, and they’ll once again have an extremely young team. I’m not sure what to make of the purple and white this season yet. Custer and Hot Springs will be average at best, and Lead-Deadwood will hopefully be able to show improvements as well.

11. As for region 3, I’m not sure any of these teams will get to the semifinals unless one of these five teams improves drastically. Little Wound and Todd County stand the best chance to do that, but personally, I don’t see it happening just yet. There are too many other good teams elsewhere in the state right now to take these teams seriously yet.

THE PREDICTION IN CLASS 11A

12. This is the most equally matched I have seen this class in the time I’ve been writing this column. Four of the five teams in region 2, as well as Dakota Valley, Harrisburg, and St. Thomas More all have a great shot going into the season.

REGION 1REGION 2REGION 3REGION 4

Milbank 8-0

Dakota Valley 6-2 Todd Co. 7-1

St. Thom.More 8-0

West Cent. 7-1

Harrisburg 6-2

Little Wound 4-4 Belle Fourche 6-2

Sisseton 6-2

Canton 4-4

Pine Ridge 3-5

Hot Springs 5-3

Dell Rapids 6-2

Vermillion 4-4

Chamberlain 2-6 Custer 3-5

Madison 1-7

Lennox 3-5

Cheyenne-EB 1-7 Lead-Deadwd 1-7

Tea 1-7

COMING TOMORROW….

The 2010 Dakota Dozen preview tour draws to a close with a look at the big gunners in class 11AA. Will Sioux Falls be making it six straight championships, or does another team have what it takes to take a title this season?

2009 SEASON: 102-36

DAKOTA DOZEN ARCHIVE:

Aug. 20 - 11AA

Aug. 26 - Week 1

Sept. 2 - Week 2

Sept. 9 - Week 3

Sept. 16 - Week 4

Sept. 23 - Week 5